Fukushima Daiichi Source Term

The most recent compilation of release estimates to the air and sea including ongoing releases can be found in this report.
We found a drastic difference between estimate ranges across academic and official agency reports and papers. Both the wide range of release estimates and the levels of the high-end estimates show a need for more research and ongoing analysis of the air and sea to fully understand what is happening.

Older initial source term estimates below

Source                                                                   Iodine & Cesium Source Term
TEPCO                                                                  • 6×1016 Bq I-131 & 7×1015 Bq of Cs-137
NSC                                                                      • 1.5×1017 Bq of I-131 & 1.2×1016 Bq of Cs-137
NISA                                                                     • 2.7×1017 Bq of I-131 & 1.3×1016 Bq of Cs-137
ZAMG                                                                   • 4×1017 Bq of I-131 & 3.3×1016Bq of Cs-137
Cazzoli                                                                  • 3.8×1017 Bq of I-131 & 1.3×1017 Bq of Cs-137
IRSN                                                                     • 4.08×1017 Bq of I-131 & 5.4×1016 Bq of Cs-137
Stohl et al.                                                            • (no iodine estimate) & 3.66 ×1016 Bq of Cs-137
Chornobyl                                                            • 1.8×1018 Bq of I-131 & 8.5×1016 Bq of Cs-137
Unit 4 SFP,  Cazzoli                                              • 9×1016 Bq Iodine-131 & 3×1016 Bq Cesium-137 (NOTE: independently qualifies as INES Level 7)
Worst Case                                                          • 3.4×1018 Bq of I-131 (2×Chornobyl) & 8.5×1017 Bq of Cs – 137

Source of information


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