SimplyInfo member Thunder has a new weather report on the risk to Japan from Typhoon Guchol:
Bad news but it could improve?
At the moment Typhoon Guchol is motoring along and current model consensus is above 95% for a crossing of the southern and eastern sections of Japan at or above Typhoon strength, in fact crossing of the Japanese mainland at some point is currently as close to 100% as you can get at this sort of lead time with all computerized weather modeling indicating the same scenario track wise within a few hundred KM’s, only the intensity varies.
Currently a category four(SSHS scale) system packing winds in excess of 130 knots the system lies East of the Philippines but is forecast to make the classic northeastern swing in the coming day and continue along this track toward Japan, the system will weaken along this path as it encounters higher Vertical Wind Shear and less favorable Sea Surface Temperatures, current estimated crossing time is Tuesday around 1800UTC (Wednesday morning early AM local) with winds forecast to be above 80knts, gusts to 100knts. As always things can and will change but modeling has remained tight and still does on the forecast track of this storm.
My apologies too, I think I directed everyone to JTWC again last time I was here, the portal for it has been down for a while now so the best site currently available(besides JMA) is the Navy/NRL TC pages found here: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
They have the Track/Threat maps available as well the text forecasts, not to mention all the satellite passes. I will try to make it back in 36 hours or so to update anything new on the system or I will be back Tuesday night(my local time) pre-crossing for a final update on what can be expected wind and rain wise!
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